AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota's primaries (2024)

WASHINGTON (AP) — After a tough summer of primaries, the progressive House members who call themselves “the Squad” are facing their final challenge next week in Minnesota.

Rep. Ilhan Omar is on the ballot in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District on Tuesday, a week after fellow Squad member Rep. Cori Bush lost the Democratic nomination in Missouri. In June, Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York, also part of the Squad, became the first Democratic House member of the cycle to lose his primary. The only other Squad member who hasn’t yet faced a primary is Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and nobody is running against her.

Omar finds herself on stronger footing than Bowman or Bush, who both faced well-funded challengers and millions of dollars in spending by United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. United Democracy Project hasn’t aired ads against Omar in this race. Even more critically, Omar is better prepared on the eve of her 2024 primary than she was for her 2022 primary, when she narrowly defeated Don Samuels, who is once again her top challenger.

Omar has improved her fundraising significantly over the last two years. In her pre-primary financial disclosures that year, Omar reported spending $2.3 million for the cycle. In this year’s pre-primary financial report, she reported raising more than double that amount, about $6.2 million. Samuels has raised about $1.4 million.

In the general election, Democratic Rep. Angie Craig represents Minnesota’s most competitive House seat in the 2nd Congressional District. She faces nominal opposition in Tuesday’s primary.

On the Republican side, former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab is endorsed by former President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson. His only opponent in Tuesday’s primary, defense attorney Tayler Rahm, announced in July that he was dropping out of the race, though he will still be in the ballot.

Rahm won the endorsem*nt of the 2nd District Republican Party but he trailed Teirab in fundraising. Rahm said that he would instead serve as a senior adviser for Trump’s Minnesota campaign.

In the 7th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach faces Steve Boyd, an under-funded primary challenger. Boyd reported spending $170,000 on the race, while Fischbach has spent over $1 million. No candidate won enough support at the district convention to win the state party endorsem*nt, but Fischbach has Trump’s endorsem*nt.

In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar is well-positioned to win her party’s nomination. She faces four challengers but none has raised campaign money, according to the Federal Elections Commission. Klobuchar has raised about $19 million.

Eight candidates are running in the Republican primary. The top fundraiser is Royce White, a former NBA player-turned mental health advocate who has since become an ally of conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and former Trump aide Steve Bannon. White shocked many political observers when he defeated Navy veteran Joe Fraser at the party convention. Neither candidate has raised significant money. White last reported raising $133,000 while Fraser has raised $68,000. No Republican groups have reserved television ads for the Senate race, according to AdImpact.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday.

Primary day

The Minnesota state primary will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET., which is 8 p.m. local time.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in 35 races, including the Republican and Democratic primaries for U.S. Senate. Minnesota is also holding primaries for the U.S. House, the state House, and one state Senate special election.

Who gets to vote

Minnesota has open primaries, meaning any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary. The state does not have political party registration.

Decision notes

The 2nd Congressional District includes Twin Cities suburbs and rural areas farther south. The most populous area of the district is in Dakota County, which leans Democratic.

The 7th Congressional District stretches along the western border and is largely rural. Boyd lives in Kensington in rural Douglas County.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

A candidate may request a publicly funded recount if the margin is less than 0.25 percentage points in federal races and less than 0.5 percentage points in state legislative races. In races where less than 400 ballots are cast, recounts can also be requested if the margin is less than 10 votes.

If the margin falls outside of the criteria for requesting a publicly funded recount, a losing candidate may request and cover funding for a discretionary recount.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of July 1, there were nearly 3.6 million registered voters in Minnesota.

In the 2024 presidential primary, 18% of votes were cast before election day. Turnout among 3,574,718 primary voters was 7% in the Democratic primary and 9% in the Republican primary.

In 2022, absentee ballots accounted for 20% of all votes. Turnout in the 7th District Republican primary was 14% of 427,502 registered voters. In the 5th District Democratic primary that year, turnout was 28% of 408,888 registered voters. In the 2022 primaries

As of Aug. 1, a total of 60,851 ballots had been cast before primary day.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the presidential primaries earlier this year, the AP first reported results at 9:09 p.m. ET, or nine minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 2:38 a.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.