• Boise State boasts star power at running back: Running back Ashton Jeanty is the early favorite to be RB1 in the 2025 NFL Draft.
• Miami (OH)'s veteran leader gives the team a shot at making the playoff: Brett Gabbert, entering his sixth year as the Miami quarterback, was having a terrific season last fall (80.6 PFF passing grade on 223 dropbacks) before suffering a season-ending injury.
• Dominate fantasy football season with promo code PFF25: Unlock all of PFF's fantasy content and tools, including full access to the fantasy football mock draft simulator, for 25% off using promo code PFF25.
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
College football is right around the corner.
We've already examined some of the Power Four teams with the best odds of making the college football playoff, and now it’s time to give some love to the Group of Five programs vying for that final spot in the 12-team playoff bracket.
Here are the top five Group of Five teams with the best chances of qualifying for the playoff this season.
Boise State Broncos
2023 Record: 8-6
G5 Power Rank: T-4th
Projected win total: 7.4
SOS: 79th
Chance of making CFP: 7%
You've hopefully heard of Ashton Jeanty, Boise State's star running back. He led all halfbacks in PFF overall grade (94.9) and receiving grade (91.6) last season as he gathered 1,922 yards from scrimmage. Jeanty, who is already viewed as a top running back prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft, plans to carry this offense once again, along with fellow back Jambres Dubar, who earned an 84.7 PFF rushing grade with 219 yards after contact in 2023.
The prized offseason acquisition for head coach Spencer Danielson and Boise State was USC quarterback transfer Malachi Nelson, although it was announced he will be QB2 behind Maddux Madsen.
The Broncos have a very difficult Week 2 matchup against Oregon. It’s hard to imagine an upset in that contest, but playing a competitive game could vault Boise State into going undefeated the rest of the way.
Ashton Jeanty is the best runningback in the country, but wasn’t eligible for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Jeanty turned down the portal likely with interest from schools like Georgia, Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma, Texas, etc, and stuck with Boise State.
RB1 in the 2025 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/6dQ91SvbHc
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) April 16, 2024
Liberty Flames
2023 Record: 13-1
G5 Power Rank: T-4th
Projected win total: 8.9
SOS: 129th
Chance of making CFP: 2%
Liberty might have the best chance of all these teams at making the College Football Playoff, given how good the team was last season as the New Year’s Six representation from the Group of Five. The Flames may have the easiest schedule in the entire FBS, too. But that eliminates any possibility of getting in with one loss, so Liberty will have to be perfect through the regular season just like it was in 2023.
Kaidon Salter‘s return means everything to this program, as he is arguably the best quarterback in the Group of Five. He is one of the few college football signal-callers who topped 1,000 rushing yards last season, and 529 of those yards came after contact. In all, Salter earned an 88.0 PFF overall grade in 2023. You can’t forget about his arm, either, as he posted the fourth-highest big-time throw percentage (8.3%) in the Group of Five.
With Salter under center and running back Quinton Cooley also coming back, Liberty could again field the nation’s best rushing attack. As a team, they had the most rushing yards in college football along with the most explosive run plays (10-plus more yards) in 2023. Cooley was a big part of that. He possesses tremendous speed and was the fourth-highest-graded running back in the country last year (92.6).
Memphis Tigers
2023 Record: 10-3
G5 Power Rank: 10th
Projected win total: 7.8
SOS: 95th
Chance of making CFP: 8%
We mentioned how Liberty's Kaidon Salter is arguably the best Group of Five quarterback. Well, Seth Henigan is likely the only other preseason contender for that title. He recorded 25 big-time throws in 2023, which ranked just outside the top 10. Henigan finished with the fourth-most passing yards in the nation and was lethal down the stretch, throwing for more than 300 yards in five of his final six games.
Memphis will still have to improve defensively to have a shot at the 12-team playoff. The Tigers ranked 117th in the FBS a season ago in yards allowed per play (6.1) and had the sixth-most missed tackles among all teams (176). Linebacker transfer Javante Mackey, who tallied 70 total tackles with only a 10% miss rate, should help boost that metric for the Tigers. The continued development of Chandler Martin will also be vital, as he led the team with 47 run stops. He and Mackey taking strides would certainly lower the number of yards gained up the middle against this Memphis defense.
Seth Henigan, DIME pic.twitter.com/WiOWKVa0Mu
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 24, 2023
Miami (OH) RedHawks
2023 Record: 11-3
G5 Power Rank: 7th
Projected win total: 7.7
SOS: 70th
Chance at making CFP: 8%
This might be Miami's best team since Ben Roethlisberger. Chuck Martin has quietly been building this program up year by year, and the RedHawks are now coming off their first MAC championship since 2019.
Miami's schedule is unusually tough, though, as they play three Power Four teams to start the year, including Notre Dame. That game could ultimately end up as the deciding factor of their playoff fate.
Brett Gabbert, entering his sixth year as the Miami quarterback, is about as experienced as they come. He was having a terrific season last fall (80.6 PFF passing grade on 223 dropbacks) before suffering a season-ending injury. Gabbert has thrown for 7,893 yards in his college career.
Miami has multiple players on defense who may find themselves playing on Sundays in the future. Matt Salopek is one of the best linebackers in college football, ranking in the top 10 at his position in both run-game tackles (64) and run-defense grade (90.3). While Salopek is stopping the run, edge rusher Brian Ugwu is affecting the pass. In 2023, Ugwu racked up 64 pressures, the third most among all defensive ends.
Texas State Bobcats
2023 Record: 8-5
G5 Power Rank: 17th
Projected win total: 8.2
SOS: 117th
Chance of making CFP: 6%
Texas State may have the most to prove of the teams on this list. But anytime you feature two defensive linemen with 90.0-plus PFF grades, you're set up for success. Ben Bell ranked first among all edge defenders in pass-rush win rate (30.3%) and pressure percentage (24.3%) last year. Draft scouts were taking notice, but he opted to come back for a final season. He will now have some help on the other side following the transfer portal addition of Steven Parker from Incarnate Wood. The competition will certainly be a step up for Parker, but 40 pressures and seven sacks is impressive against any level of foe.
Another big portal addition was stud quarterback Jordan McCloud, who broke out for James Madison a season ago. McCloud tallied the fourth-most touchdown passes in the FBS, along with 20 big-time throws, to earn an 84.0 PFF overall grade. He and running back Ismail Mahdi, who racked up the seventh most 10-plus-yard carries (40) in 2023, could be the engines to get this Bobcat offense humming.
