The NFL quarterback market is a malleable, ever-changing field that, like any other market in economics, is subject to supply and demand; as franchises realize the paramount and increasing importance of the quarterback position, signing talented passers to lucrative long-term extensions becomes prioritized, with the market consistently being reset by signal-callers benefiting from a basic economic principle.
As teams continue to invest in their quarterbacks at the current (and ever-growing) market price, the deals signed several years ago by the NFL’s top-tier signal-callers look increasingly outdated—for example, the new deals signed by Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence ($55 million annually) and Detroit Lions passer Jared Goff ($53 million per year) this offseason pushed Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo Bills signal-caller Josh Allen to the league’s tenth-and-11th-highest-paid-passers, respectively.
One can rank the top quarterbacks in the NFL however they so choose, but the vast majority of people would agree that Mahomes and Allen are better than the tenth-and-11th-best passers in football.
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Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio has noted this in a recent article breaking down the signal-callers that he feels are realistic candidates to earn the NFL’s first $60 million AAV contract. The writer identified Allen as a potential name, touching on his current contract in relation to the rest of the league.
“With each new quarterback contract, Allen’s six-year, $258.3 million extension becomes more glaring,” Florio wrote. “He has a new-money average of $43.05 million. Thus, one of the top two quarterbacks in the NFL isn’t even in the top 10 in new-money average.
“He has four years left on his current contract, at a total payout after 2024 of $156.05 million. That’s an average of $39 million per year on the back end of his current deal. The Bills might not want to hear this, especially with upcoming cap charges of $60.7 million, $56.4 million, $49.4 million, and $45.7 million, but Allen is underpaid. He should want a new deal. He should get a new deal. If his agents are currently rattling the cage behind the scenes, he could be the first to $60 million.”
It’s difficult to dub any contract that sees a player earn an average annual salary of $43 million a “bargain,” but the description seems apt for Allen. He initially inked his six-year, $258 million extension in the summer of 2021, a deal that then made him the league’s second-highest-paid passer and included a then-NFL record $150 million in guarantees.
Allen has played above the value of that contract, leading the Bills to another three AFC East titles as he’s cemented himself as one of the best quarterbacks in football. He’s totaled over 40 touchdowns in an NFL-record four straight seasons and has earned NFL MVP votes in three of those campaigns—he is, objectively, one of the best players in the modern NFL.
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And that’s why Florio feels a reworked contract could be imminent considering the contemporary state of the quarterback market. Though he currently accounts for a significant 12% of Buffalo’s salary cap (a percentage that’s set to increase in the coming years), he’s objectively underpaid when compared to his peers; if a new deal comes in the near future, Allen would almost assuredly be the NFL’s first player to earn north of $60 million per season.
That said, there haven’t been any credible rumblings regarding an Allen extension or reports suggesting that he’s dissatisfied with his contract. Buffalo made several moves in the 2024 offseason to free up long-term salary cap flexibility, but it’s not necessarily in the financial position to extend Allen at this juncture; that said, if and when the quarterback requests a new deal, the Bills would likely be more than willing to oblige. He is their franchise centerpiece, after all.
Allen’s current deal is set to expire after the 2028 NFL season.
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