Until an "airborne projectile" slammed into the Tehran house where he was sleeping, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh probably had every reason to believe he was safe.
The political leader of the Palestinian militant group — which Australia lists as a terrorist organisation — Haniyeh was in the heart of Iran, reportedly surrounded by bodyguards, so he could attend the inauguration of the country's new president.
Details of what exactly unfolded are scant.
But Hamas claims that Haniyeh, along with one of his guards, was "killed in a treacherous Zionist raid" on a special residence for military veterans in the north of the Iranian capital.
On Wednesday evening, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a televised address from Tel Aviv, in which he said his country had delivered crushing blows to Iran's proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, this week.
However, he did not specifically highlight Haniyeh's killing, which Israel is yet to claim responsibility for.
But the violent death of a key Hamas figure came on a day of high drama in the Middle East.
Just hours before Haniyeh was killed, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said it "eliminated" a senior Hezbollah commander in an air strike on the Lebanese capital, Beirut.
The IDF says Fuad Shukr was behind a rocket attack on a soccer field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights — a charge Hezbollah denies.
Hezbollah on Wednesday confirmed Shukr's death.
Now Iran's Supreme Leader has promised revenge and the armed groups in its "Axis of Resistance", like Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, are gearing up for greater attacks.
A single night period bookended by the apparent assassinations of two Iran-backed militant leaders could ignite the Middle East powder keg.
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Why this could be a serious escalation
In October last year, Hamas-led militants stormed across the border into southern Israel, killing hundreds of civilians and taking more than 250 hostages back into Gaza.
Israeli officials then vowed to track down senior members of Hamas and assassinate them.
"Let every Arab mother know that if her son took part in the [October 7] massacre, he signed his own death warrant," the head of the Mossad spy agency David Barnea said.
Saleh al-Arouri, a high-powered Hamas leader, was killed in an air strike in Lebanon in January.
Israel did not claim responsibility for the assassination, with a government spokesman saying only that "whoever did this has a gripe with Hamas".
Then in April, Israeli fighter jets are believed to have fired missiles at the Iranian consulate in Syria's capital Damascus, killing senior military commanders.
Now, these twin assassinations in Beirut and Tehran have eliminated two of the most senior figures amongst Israel's immediate enemies.
Fuad Shukr has been described as the right-hand man to Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The well-armed, Iran-backed group could well see the apparent assassination of a high-profile member on its home turf as a provocation that requires a strong response.
The attack on Haniyeh is a humiliation for Iranian authorities, who failed to protect a high-profile visitor staying in military housing in the capital.
"What happened in Tehran was a bad thing for the Iranian security apparatus … and that's why Iran will somehow feel it has to respond to this," Abas Aslani, a fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, told Al Jazeera.
"This is not good news for the security apparatus in Tehran."
The killing of Haniyeh could also make it more difficult for Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire deal.
Haniyeh was a key figure in the Hamas negotiating team and was reportedly a loud voice in the Hamas leadership in favour of a ceasefire.
He was repeatedly described as "pragmatic" and had good relationships with the key regional players, not least Qatar, where he lived.
The Gulf state, a US ally, has been trying to broker a deal to end the Gaza fighting for months.
"How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?" Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani asked in a social media post.
Hamas deputy in Gaza, Khalil Al-Hayya, told a press conference in Tehran on Wednesday that Haniyeh's assassination was a crime that should be punished, but that the militant group, and Iran, did not want a regional war.
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While the International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor has sought an arrest warrant for Haniyeh for crimes against humanity relating to the October 7 terror attacks, the Hamas leader was well-regarded by other Palestinian political factions and armed groups.
Gazan political analyst Muhammad Shehada suggested a motivation for killing him could have been to ensure Hamas was not part of any Palestinian unity movement.
"Haniyeh was supportive of unity with the Palestinian Authority in the Beijing summit last week and held moderate and pragmatist positions in the ceasefire negotiations," he wrote on the social media platform X.
"He would've been the best-equipped person to persuade [Gaza leader Yahya] Sinwar of a deal and influence his inner circle."
Haniyeh had blamed Israel for stalling the ceasefire talks, saying it did not want to end the war.
Israel's government may be planning to use his death as an example of what it has achieved, while its aims in Gaza, such as freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas, remain elusive.
But it's possible that Israel could have killed Ismail Haniyeh well before now, on one of his earlier trips to Iran or elsewhere in the region and the timing of this assassination was for other reasons.
It now leaves major players such as the United States scrambling to contain the fallout.
Ultimately, experts suggested Haniyeh's death would do little to weaken Hamas nor restore stability.
"Hamas is a concept and an institution and not persons. Hamas will continue on this path regardless of the sacrifices and we are confident of victory," Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior Hamas official, told Reuters.
In his televised address, Netanyahu said "challenging days lie ahead" for Israel.
"We are prepared for any scenario and we will stand united and determined against any threat," he said.
"Israel will exact a heavy price for any aggression against us from any arena."
While Hamas will go on without Haniyeh, the prospects of a ceasefire in the short term appear to be growing more distant, and the chances of a regional war are likely increasing.
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